Rossby Award 2004 Winner Thesis Abstract
On
the Origins of the Ice Ages:
Insolation Forcing, Age Models and Nonlinear Climate Change
by Peter Huybers
Abstract:
This thesis revolves about the relationship
between orbital forcing and climate variability. To
place paleo and modern climate variability in context, the
spectrum of temperature variability is estimated from
time-scales of months to hundreds of thousands of years,
using a patchwork of proxy and instrumental records.
There is an energetic background continuum and rich spatial
structure associated with temperature variability which both
scale according to simple spectral power-laws. To
complement the spatial and temporal analysis of temperature
variability, a description of the full insolation forcing is
also developed using Legendre polynomials to represent the
spatial modes of variability, and singular vectors to
represent seasonal and long-term changes. The leading
four spatial and temporal modes describe over 99% of the
insolation variability, making this a relatively simple and
compact description of the full insolation forcing.
Particular attention is paid to the insolation variations
resulting from the precession of the equinoxes. There
is no mean annual insolation variability associated with
precession--precession only modulates the seasonal cycle.
Nonlinear rectification of the seasonal cycle generates
precession-period variability, and such reactivation
naturally occurs in the climate system but also results from
the seasonality inherent to many climate proxies. One
must distinguish this latter instrumental effect from true
climate responses. Another potential source of
spurious low-frequency variability results from the
stretching and squeezing of an age-model, so that noise in a
record is made to align with an orbital signal.
Furthermore, and contrary to assertions made elsewhere, such
orbital-tuning can also generate an eccentricity-like
amplitude modulation in records that have been
narrow-band-pass filtered over the precession bands.
An accurate age-model is the linchpin required to connect
insolation forcing with any resulting climatic responses; to
avoid circular reasoning, this age-model should make no
orbital assumptions. A new chronology of glaciation,
spanning the last 780 kilo-years is estimated from 21 marine
sediment cores, using a compaction-corrected depth scale as
a proxy for time. Age-model uncertainty estimates are
made using a stochastic model of marine sediment
accumulation. The depth-derived ages are estimated to
be accurate to within +/-9000 years, and within this
uncertainty are consistent with the orbitally-tuned age
estimates. Nonetheless, the remaining differences
between the depth and orbitally derived chronologies produce
important differences in the spectral domain. From the
delta-18O record, using the depth-derived ages, evidence is
found for a nonlinear coupling involving the 100KY and
obliquity frequency bands which generates interaction bands
at sum and difference frequencies. If an orbitally-tuned
age-model is instead applied, these interactions are
suppressed, with the system appearing more nearly linear.
A generalized phase synchronization analysis is used to
further assess the nonlinear coupling between obliquity and
the glacial cycles. Using a formal hypothesis testing
procedure, it is shown that glacial terminations are
associated with high-obliquity states at the 95%
significance level. The association of terminations
with eccentricity or precession is indistinguishable from
chance. A simple excitable system is introduced to
explore potential mechanisms by which obliquity paces the
glacial cycles. After tuning a small number of
adjustable parameters, the excitable model reproduces the
correct timing for each termination as well as the linear
and nonlinear features earlier identified in the delta-18O
record. Under a wide range of conditions, the model exhibits
a chaotic amplitude response to insolation forcing.
One chaotic mode gives a train of small and nearly equal
amplitude 40KY cycles. Another mode permits ice to
accumulate over two (80KY) or three obliquity cycles (120KY)
prior to rapidly ablating and thus, on average, generates
100KY variability. The model spontaneously switches
between these 40 and 100KY chaotic modes, suggesting that
the Mid-Pleistocene Transition may be independent of any
major shifts in the background state of the climate system.