Synopsis:
Forecasts several days ago showed the potential for a substantial
nor'easter to impact New England Monday. The night before, it
appears we're still in line for a decent sized storm. The Jan 14 00Z
NAM 12 hour forecast, shown below, shows a developing area of low
pressure passing SE of Nantucket. As the low strengthens and moves
toward the NE, strong rising motion will allow the atmosphere to
quickly becoming saturated and heavy snow to start falling early in
the morning. In fact, if the low strengthens quickly enough, there
may be thundersnow. The wind will help blow the snow some and reduce
visibility as the surface pressure gradient tightens, but winds will
be well below blizzard criteria (3 hours of winds greater than
35mph).
Jan 14, 00Z NAM 12 hour forecast valid Monday
morning at 7am. Black lines denote surface pressure. Dashed lines
denote 1000-500mb thickness with the 540dm line used as a proxy for
the rain-snow line. Shading denotes the previous 6 hour
precipitation with the greens lighter amounts and the blues heavier
amounts.
How much snow will we end up getting? It's a good bet we'll see at
least 8" and maybe as much as a foot, especially if any heavier snow
bands set up over us. In any case, winter is back.
Updated 10pm, Jan 14 by Brian
Archived Information regarding the nor'easter:
